2015 election: THE WINNER WILL NOT BE JONATHAN, PDP, BUHARI OR APC. I Know The Winner Said, Azuka Onwuka.

Will it be Dr Goodluck Jonathan of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party or Maj. Gen. (retd.) Muhammadu Buhari of the opposition All Progressives Congress? I will name the winner

later.

But something soul-lifting has happened in Nigeria. Never before had the opposition been so confident that the electoral system, controlled by an incumbent President, would give them victory as this February 2015 elections. When the Federal Electoral Commission, under the supervision of Prime Minister Abubakar Tafawa Balewa, conducted the federal and regional elections of 1964 and 1965 respectively, the opposition were not very optimistic about victory. The dispute over the elections and the consequent violence that trailed it led to the first military coup of January 15, 1966.

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In 1983, when President Shehu Shagari supervised his re-election bid, the opposition were not very optimistic about victory. The election result was so much discredited that top opposition figures directly called for the overthrow of the Shagari government. The military took over on January 31, 1983.

In 2003, when President Olusegun Obasanjo supervised his second-term election, the opposition did not deceive itself that the electoral body, led by Sir Abel Guobadia, would declare Chief Emeka Odumegwu-Ojukwu of the All Progressive Grand Alliance or Buhari of the All Nigeria People’s Congress or Chief Gani Fawehinmi of the National Conscience Party or any of the other candidates the winner of that election. Predictably, there was nothing surprising when INEC announced the result.

The 2007 election supervised by Obasanjo was even worse than the 2003 election. Election observers had only negative words for it. The European Union observers described it as the worst they had “ever seen anywhere in the world”, with “rampant vote rigging, violence, theft of ballot boxes and intimidation.” Even the principal beneficiary of that election, President Umaru Yar’Adua, acknowledged that the election that brought him in was not good enough.

Given that the ruling PDP knew that it had a system that would ensure that it continued to be declared the winner of every election in the country, irrespective of the wishes of the voters, its top members grew arrogant. It was not, therefore, surprising in 2008 that its chairman, Chief Vincent Ogbulafor, boasted that the PDP would rule Nigeria for 60 years. Nigerians could only whine. But deep down, they knew that they were helpless. In despair, I wrote an article of lamentation published in The PUNCH, entitled, “Again, the people’s votes did not count”.

Something became apparent to Nigerians: Given that a military take-over was no longer an option (following the dark side of the military especially as witnessed during the regime of Gen. Sani Abacha), the only hope for sustainable development was transparently free and fair elections. But how would that be achieved with incumbent presidents manipulating the electoral body? The honest comment by Yar’Adua about the election that brought him in gave some hope to many Nigerians that he would initiate electoral reforms. His respect for the rule of law and due process, unlike his predecessor, made many Nigerians hopeful that there would be a break from the past. He promptly obeyed the Supreme Court judgment of January 18, 2008, which declared Mr Chibuike Amaechi as the true candidate of the PDP for the 2007 governorship election in Rivers State that he did not participate in because Obasanjo had said his case had “K-leg”. Yar’Adua also promptly obeyed the November 11, 2008 Appeal Court ruling declaring Mr Adams Oshiomhole the winner of the 2007 governorship election in Edo. The same thing happened regarding the Ondo and Osun governorship court judgments.

However, in 2009 when the Court of Appeal ordered a re-run in Ekiti State between Mr Segun Oni of the PDP and Dr Kayode Fayemi of the then Action Congress of Nigeria, it was a golden opportunity for Yar’Adua to show the world that he was pro-transparent election. But INEC still conducted an election that was flawed. The state Resident Electoral Commissioner, Mrs Ayoka Adebayo, disappeared midway into the election, complaining that she was being forced to do what was against her conscience. Eventually she re-emerged and announced bogus figures in favour of Oni. The court had to upturn her decision to declare Fayemi the governor.

That led most Nigerians to conclude that the most critical element in Nigeria’s development was free and fair elections. This became the mantra: “Get the electoral process right, and everything will fall in place.” The argument was that once those in office know that power belongs to the people, they would eschew arrogance and embrace true service and development. They would no longer try to satisfy some political godfathers or benefactors. Rather, they would make all efforts to satisfy the true masters: the people.

When in February 2010 (the same month Jonathan was made the Acting President through the Senate’s “doctrine of necessity”) INEC conducted the governorship election in Anambra State, most observers said that the election was transparent and well conducted. In the morning of the next day, INEC declared Governor Peter Obi of the APGA winner of that election. Prof Chukwuma Soludo of the PDP came second, while Dr Chris Ngige of the ACN came third. INEC was commended. Surprisingly, it was the same INEC and the same Prof Maurice Iwu who had conducted criticised elections some months before. It gave credence to the thinking of many that INEC or its chairman was not the problem but the person occupying the seat of the President. It was argued that if the President did not interfere in the electoral process, the umpire would organise transparent elections. The transparency of the June 12, 1993 election, conducted by Prof Humphrey Nwosu, was a testimony to this. The election was smooth and impressive but for the infamous annulment of the election midway into the announcement of the result.

In June 2010, Jonathan nominated Prof Attahiru Jega as the Chairman of INEC. Given the pedigree of Jega, it made hopes to rise that Jonathan’s promise to reform the electoral system had some merit. The 2011 general election tested that hope. The consensus from local and international observers was that, to a very large extent, the results reflected the wishes of the people. Hope rose higher.

This was further reinforced by the quality of the governorship elections conducted in Edo and Ondo in 2012, Anambra in 2013, and Ekiti and Osun in 2014. Even though there were some hiccups, the wishes of the people counted in the main. Of these five elections, the opposition APC won in two states, the ruling PDP won in one state, APGA won in one state, while Labour Party won in one state. It was clear to every honest Nigerian that something new had happened to our electoral process.

That rekindled the public interest and trust in the electoral process. The era of concocted and fabricated results was over. The era of godfathers and power brokers deciding the winner of an election was over. The era of INEC favouring the government in power was over. Power had returned to the people. This is the legacy of Jonathan to Nigeria.

So, when the February 2015 presidential election is held on St. Valentine’s Day, who will win? The answer is simple. I have seen the winner. The winner will not be Jonathan. It will not be the PDP. It will not be Buhari, neither will it be the APC. The winner of the 2015 election will be the Nigerian people. After years of denial, power has been restored to them. If this electoral process is nurtured and not truncated again in the future, it will be the launch pad that will transform the global face and standing of Nigeria. Congratulations, Nigerians!

–Twitter @BrandAzuka

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